The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE), soared 30.68% in a single week – marking the biggest increase in two years – as freight rates rallied across all major global shipping routes. As of June 6, the index reached 2,240.35 points, a substantial 41.2% jump from 1,586.12 points two weeks prior.
Freight rates for the four major transoceanic routes to Europe and the Americas all posted double-digit gains (exceeding 10%):
- Europe: +20.50%
- Mediterranean: +31.49%
- West Coast USA: +57.92%
- East Coast USA: +45.73%
Other key routes also recorded notable growth:
- South America (Santos): +44.62%
- West Africa: +7.52%
- East Africa: +16.64%
- South Africa: +12.61%
Chart: Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) Trend
Uncertainties surrounding EU-U.S. tariff negotiations have posed challenges to Europe’s economic recovery outlook.
- Shanghai to Europe: $1,587/TEU (+20.50% week-on-week)
- Shanghai to Mediterranean: $3,061/TEU (+31.49% week-on-week)
Regional divergence characterizes recent freight rates and capacity dynamics. Amid supply-demand fluctuations and bulk cargo shipment expectations, short-term adjustments coexist with mid-to-long-term market support:
- West India: Minor rate decline expected next week; potential slight uptick in the second half of the month driven by bulk cargo movements.
- East India: Cargo volume to recover next week, leading to modest rate increases.
- Chittagong (Bangladesh): Stable rates.
- Karachi (Pakistan): Geopolitical tensions have eased, but capacity remains tight with rates at elevated levels.
Recommendation: Shippers are advised to plan shipments and bookings based on regional-specific trends.
- West South America: Temporary rate hikes in early June disrupted some shipments; rates edged down this week with a notable drop in volume.
- East South America: Strong expectations of sustained rate hikes in mid-to-late June have led to full capacity and cargo rolling across all carriers. Due to the relatively small market size, rate sensitivity is high, driving rapid freight increases.
Robust shipping demand persists amid the "export rush" to the U.S. Industry insiders note that U.S. route capacity has returned to pre-"trade war" levels, but space remains tight due to port congestion, fueling sharp rate hikes.
- According to Xeneta data: Since May 3, mid-to-high average spot rates for 75% of shippers on the Far East to East Coast USA route have surged by an astonishing 88% to approximately $6,100/FEU. This reflects shippers’ willingness to absorb higher costs to secure shipments amid the temporary window created by the suspension of reciprocal China-U.S. tariffs.
- Far East to West Coast USA: Average rates rose from $2,615/FEU to $5,082/FEU.
- North Europe to East Coast USA: Average spot rates increased from $2,081/FEU to $2,129/FEU week-on-week.
June 2-8 marks Week 23 of 2025. The China-U.S. tariff grace period ends on August 11, with eligibility determined by the cargo’s customs clearance date. Container shipping lines estimate that for West Coast USA shipments to qualify for the 30% tariff rate under the grace period, the latest departure date is Week 30 (July 22-28). Failure to reach a new tariff agreement by then may lead to a renewed slowdown in China-U.S. shipping.
Two key variables will shape future U.S. route rates:
- Ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy, pending potential new China-U.S. negotiations.
- Shippers’ tendency to delay shipments, awaiting rate corrections expected with the launch of additional West Coast USA sailings and new routes in June-July.
As the U.S. route peak season begins, the August 11 tariff grace period and volatile freight rates will directly impact shipment plans. To avoid customs clearance delays or cost overruns, shippers and forwarders are advised to closely monitor the following:
- Sailing & Rate Tracking: Real-time updates on additional West Coast USA sailings and new routes (set for intensive deployment in June-July) to capitalize on potential rate correction windows.
- Tariff Risk Management: For shipments targeting the 30% tariff rate under the grace period, West Coast USA cargo should depart no later than early Week 30 (July 22-28) to ensure customs clearance falls within the grace period.
- Advanced Shipping Planning: Given tariff policy uncertainties and peak-season capacity constraints, proactively schedule bookings and container loading to mitigate delays caused by negotiation developments or capacity fluctuations.
UNI Logistics remains guided by industry trends, leveraging insights into rate movements and sailing schedules to deliver tailored transportation solutions that balance timeliness and cost efficiency. For customized logistics plans, please feel free to contact us at any time.
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